There are two strategies for trading with support and resistance, first of all, wait for confirmation or secondly, we can second guess the level is going to work.
1.Waiting for Confirmation
As you can see in the picture, let’s say we’re waiting for confirmation.
We’ve got a chart here. The market’s been falling. Maybe we think the market’s going to turn around and the level we’re watching is old low down marked on the picture. So if we’re looking for confirmation, it’s not enough that the market just heads back to that level. We want to see, again, support coming into a place where we have a market that’s sliding.
Maybe, we wait for it. If we’re looking at candlesticks and this doesn’t really matter whether we’re looking at a daily chart, an hourly chart, 10-minute chart. We wait for at least one period where the market turns around. So maybe we have a positive candlestick.
We have a sign of buying come in. That’s our first bit of confirmation. And of course, the reverse applies if we’re selling into resistance. We’re looking for a day when the market does at least go down.
This is the price of gold example. We’re looking at a daily chart. So every day, every candle represents a day’s worth of trading. From September 2017, we saw the price of gold in recovery. We did see sell-offs, but the market turned around and moved higher.
So as you can see in the picture. This is up to the 25th of October. And we might think the same thing is happening again. We’ve had a run-up. We’ve had a sell-off. The markets bounced back. We’re coming back to the old support. What’s going to happen?
We might want to be a buyer, but we’re going to wait for confirmation. So we can see the support is at 1260. So what we’re waiting for is at the very least one day where the market goes up. We want to see it turn around if it goes sailing through the support. There’s no trade confirmation waiting for is one positive day.
So we have our day where the market has pushed lower. But as you can see o the picture, it’s turned around on the day and it’s closed pretty much near the highs of the day. So for some people, that will be enough to confirm this point is valid. So it would be a buyer around about what, 12.73, 12.74, obvious place the stop-loss down below 12.60. And we’re in the trade.
As you can see in the picture, there is our turnaround. It took a week of sitting on that support. But so far, at least, the market has moved about 13 dollars higher. So that is a good example of waiting to come on confirmation ahead of previous support would have set us up with a good trade.
Now we’re looking at a very different time frame. We’re looking now a confirmation of a sale near resistance. As you can see on the picture, we’re looking at dollar-yen. It’s a 10-minute candlestick. Every candle represents 10 minutes worth of trading. This is the early hours of the 7th of November. The market rallies up from 113.70 rallies up 60, 70 points up to 1144.33. We see the market drop out of the trend line.
This has made us think if this is an opportunity to sell if we go back to hair and fail? Is this our opportunity to sell short? But again, we are looking for confirmations and maybe we want to see at least one 10 minute candlestick where the market runs out of steam. If it blasts through the level, there’s no short.
The resistance level is if we walk forward 10 minutes, 9:20 in the morning, UK time, traded as high as 114.33. We’ve seen this candlestick here trade up to 114.29, so within four points of the high and it’s turned around.
Our trade here could be if we’re going to be a seller at 114.18, with a stop somewhere above, let’s say 114.14, 114.15, something like that. But we’re taking that as our confirmation of resistance. Short term resistance, It was only formed about seven hours earlier, but that’s our signal.
Over the course of the next nine hours as you can see on the picture, it does actually end up being the turning point. There was no way of knowing when we put the trade on that the market was going to drop about 50 points. But it was a low-risk logical place to go short because we had a definite reference point. If the trade doesn’t work out, we get out for a small and manageable loss.
Arguably, that’s the more disciplined way of doing it. Wait for the market to confirm this is a valid level. But if we want to be more aggressive, we can anticipate that a level is going to hold. So again, let’s take a quick look at how it should work in the theoretical world.
2. Guess the Level Is Going to Work
When it comes to anticipating support or resistance holding. It’s a much more aggressive trade. We’re hoping that we get in it may be a better price or rather than waiting for the market to turn round. We’re buying or selling when the levels approach. So, for example, going back to this chart here, we just are a buyer as you can see on the picture with our stop loss below. So we are in effect, we’re second-guessing the market is going to turn around. But accepting that risk, of course, it could just sail straight through. So we’re giving up the extra confirmation, but we’re hoping to get in as near as possible to that big level.
Now, clearly, there are going to be more examples of anticipating because it’s going to work. I think a lot less off often than are looking for confirmation.
So here’s our more aggressive strategy. This is euro dollar 0 spread four-hour candlestick as you can see on the picture. Every candle represents four hours worth of trading. This is the middle of October. So the market Eurodollar is traded as high as 118.80 and is sold off pretty hard, sold off down to 117.30. So we’ve seen one hundred and fifty point decline. The market is bouncing back, but we think that that level is going to hold. We think that the old resistance It’s going to be a barrier.
The level is 118.80. Let’s say our stop-loss is 118.95. You can see during this four hour period, the market traded as high as 118.57-118.60. So we may decide to be a seller at one 118.40 where this market has traded, so we were waiting for it to just push a little bit higher than we’re going to sell because we’re gonna assume that all resistance is gonna hold. It is a more aggressive strategy because we’re second-guessing the resistance.
Let’s see what happened over the next four hours. As you can see in the picture, the market has pushed higher. Let’s say we got filled at 118.40 but is carried on higher still. So at the moment, the trade is underwater. We’re down 15, 20 points, but we’re still guessing that that old resistance is going to hold. It was a big level and we did see it tested on the way on the way down. But that’s what we’re assuming here.
We then go over the next four hours, fairly indecisive candle. If we were waiting for confirmation, this could well be the confirmation for some. But we’re taking a more aggressive stance here. We’re already in the trade.
Let’s see what happened next. As it turned out, the market did turn down. If we if we’d have waited for a more negative candle for confirmation, we wouldn’t have been getting in until the point that you can see on the picture. So anticipating it higher risk, but arguably gives us a better feel. But the risk is the market would have just gone sailing through that. old level.
Let’s look at another example. As you can see in the picture, now we’ve got a much more short-term example. It’s a 10-minute chart of the German 30. Like many stock markets, it has had a very strong year being dragged higher by U.S. stock markets. What we’re looking at here, each catalyst represents 10 minutes worth of trading is the 7th of November. We’ve seen the market hold at 13340, and you can see it has quite a few goes that are marked on the picture.
So we see the market pushing down. Again, our aggressive strategy will be to be a buyer. Now, assuming this level is going to hold. What happens next?
And the DAX, the German 30 index, just sailed through the level like a knife through butter. So if we had been waiting for a confirmation there, we’d never have done the trades. But we run the risk of the market turning around shortly. But this shows why it’s even more important if you’re taking an aggressive approach and anticipating levels hold that you have stop losses in place because here’s a clear example where the market didn’t care about previous support and went sailing through.
You can see one of the drawbacks there of trying to anticipate is that you end up just jumping out in something that is a runaway train. The upside is you’ll get better entries. The downside is, as we saw with that DAX example, bang, it just goes sailing through the level. I think it maybe if you’re new to trading and then maybe the logical the safer way to do it, first of all, is to wait for the confirmation. It builds up the discipline, it builds up the patience. And I think these are both incredibly important factors when it comes to trading.